Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 3.956943 4.309216 4.698705 5.165329 5.714708 6.348175 7.144778
2025-02-02 3.584522 4.066741 4.639657 5.385574 6.355410 7.612096 9.436496
2025-02-09 3.333988 3.883988 4.569378 5.515288 6.839753 8.725404 11.837495
2025-02-16 3.079700 3.651925 4.388589 5.448069 7.015343 9.418533 13.847127
2025-02-23 2.887108 3.473059 4.247804 5.401532 7.192389 10.132813 16.181851
2025-03-02 2.723723 3.314923 4.113926 5.339111 7.322007 10.786580 18.728103
2025-03-09 2.586502 3.179395 3.995961 5.280715 7.440094 11.441080 21.682534
2025-03-16 2.480603 3.078064 3.915884 5.267475 7.626547 12.273046 25.750529
2025-03-23 2.415669 3.028517 3.905171 5.359786 8.012052 13.638443 32.951378
2025-03-30 2.307223 2.909548 3.781022 5.250940 8.001905 14.113580 37.673510
2025-04-06 2.207998 2.798343 3.660852 5.136437 7.962143 14.508818 42.804486
2025-04-13 2.099354 2.668182 3.503874 4.945254 7.742500 14.386851 45.270514
2025-04-20 2.063046 2.644087 3.511941 5.045946 8.147394 16.123384 64.237991
2025-04-27 2.052075 2.656704 3.578103 5.257023 8.834314 19.090043 117.172466
2025-05-04 2.023591 2.640798 3.596533 5.381591 9.356572 21.928628 243.410297
2025-05-11 1.961334 2.569886 3.519915 5.317056 9.413178 23.096496 424.552709
2025-05-18 1.907134 2.509063 3.456538 5.272365 9.512566 24.541613 1112.155520
2025-05-25 1.853879 2.447493 3.388510 5.212404 9.563059 25.841729 11963.829923
2025-06-01 1.804680 2.390370 3.325063 5.156293 9.615417 27.234320 NaN
2025-06-08 1.765783 2.348003 3.284621 5.143569 9.785891 29.452953 NaN
2025-06-15 1.745557 2.334405 3.292892 5.232266 10.264876 34.136393 NaN
2025-06-22 1.696106 2.272107 3.212960 5.127676 10.154742 34.882025 NaN
2025-06-29 1.648273 2.211033 3.132845 5.017589 10.013334 35.342511 NaN